January 13, 2009 — Most of the very successful toys in 2008 were driven by movies — “Star Wars: The Clone Wars,” “The Dark Knight,” Wall-E” and “Iron Man” – and it hence behooves us to look at what films are awaiting us this year and next.
I asked my buyer friends to rate the toy potential of the movies coming down the pike, on a scale from 1 to 10. This is what they came up with:
Title
Toy Potential
Release Date
Developer
Likely licensee(s): 1st in US; 2nd international
The Pink Panther 2
4
2/6/2009
MGM
Sanrio
Jonas Brothers: The 3-D Concert Experience
4
2/27/2009
Disney
Jakks Pacific
Watchmen
7
3/6/2009
Warner Bros.
DC Direct
Monsters vs. Aliens
8
3/27/2009
DreamWorks
Toy Quest
The Wolf Man
7
4/3/2009
Universal Pictures
open
Race to Witch Mountain
2
4/9/2009
Disney
Mattel
X-Men Origins: Wolverine
6
5/1/2009
Marvel
Hasbro
The Chronicles of Narnia – The Voyage of the Dawn Treader
5
5/1/2009
Disney
Jakks Pacific
Hannah Montana: The Movie
7
5/5/2009
Disney
Jakks Pacific/Mattel
Star Trek
8
5/8/2009
Viacom
Playmates/Corgi
Terminator: Salvation
8
5/22/2009
Warner Bros.
Playmates
UP
5
6/12/2009
Disney
Playmates
Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen
9
6/26/2009
Hasbro
Hasbro
Ice Age 3: Dawn of the Dinosaurs
8
7/1/2009
20th Century Fox
Mattel
Astro Boy
3
7/1/2009
Imagi Animation
WowWee
Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince
10
7/7/2009
Warner Bros.
NECA (int'l)/Corgi (Europe)
Land of the Lost
5
7/17/2009
Universal Pictures
Jakks Pacific
G-Force 5
5
7/24/2009
Disney
Jakks Pacific
He-Man: Masters of the Universe
8
8/1/2009
Warner Bros.
Mattel
G.I. Joe: Rise of Cobra
9
8/7/2009
Hasbro
Hasbro
Where the Wild Things Are 2
7
9/9/2009
Warner Bros.
McFarlane Toys
Avatar 8
8
12/17/2009
20th Century Fox
Mattel
The Princess and the Frog
5
12/25/2009
Disney
Mattel
Toy Story 3
9
1/8/2010
Disney
Mattel
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles
8
3/4/2010
Imagi Animation
Playmates
Alice in Wonderland
3
3/19/2010
Disney
Mattel
Alvin and the Chipmunks 2
5
3/19/2010
20th Century Fox
Mattel
Iron Man 2
8
4/30/2010
Marvel
Hasbro
Spider-Man 4
10
5/1/2010
Marvel
Hasbro
Shrek Goes Fourth
7
5/21/2010
DreamWorks
McFarlane Toys
Prince of Persia: The Sands of Time
5
5/28/2010
Disney
Jakks Pacific
Thor
6
6/4/2010
Marvel
Hasbro
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 1
10
11/1/2010
Warner Bros.
NECA (int'l)/Corgi (Europe)
Rapunzel
6
12/25/2010
Disney
Mattel
For both 2009 and 2010, the buyers rated the Harry Potter entries as the top movies in terms of toy potential.
In order to validate their judgment, I looked at blog metrics denoting consumer interest, comparing the three top-rated movies for 2009. These metrics confirm the ratings:
I also consulted Times Online (the online version of the venerable “Times” of London) ] in regard to their projections for the 50 biggest blockbusters in 2009.
This is how they rated some of the movies given above:
Times Rank*
Movie
Buyer Weight**
1
Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince
10
3
Star Trek
8
4
Watchmen
7
5
X-Men Origins: Wolverine
6
7
Avatar
8
8
Monsters vs. Aliens
8
9
Terminator: Salvation
8
13
Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen
9
22
Ice Age 3: Dawn of the Dinosaurs
8
25
Hannah Montana: The Movie
7
30
The Wolf Man
7
35
G.I. Joe: Rise of Cobra
9
* 1 is best ** 10 is best
The buyers and the “Times” seem to agree in principle on which movies will be the most influential this year.
Writer's Bio: Lutz Muller is a Swiss who has lived on five continents. In the United States, he was the CEO for four manufacturing companies, including two in the toy industry. Since 2002, he has provided competitive intelligence on the toy and video game market to manufacturers and financial institutions coast-to-coast. He gets his information from his retailer panel, from big-box buyers and his many friends in the industry. If anything happens, he is usually the first to know. Read more on his website at www.klosterstrading.com. Read more articles by this author
January 13, 2009 — Most of the very successful toys in 2008 were driven by movies — “Star Wars: The Clone Wars,” “The Dark Knight,” Wall-E” and “Iron Man” – and it hence behooves us to look at what films are awaiting us this year and next. 
For both 2009 and 2010, the buyers rated the Harry Potter entries as the top movies in terms of toy potential.
Writer's Bio: Lutz Muller is a Swiss who has lived on five continents. In the United States, he was the CEO for four manufacturing companies, including two in the toy industry. Since 2002, he has provided competitive intelligence on the toy and video game market to manufacturers and financial institutions coast-to-coast. He gets his information from his retailer panel, from big-box buyers and his many friends in the industry. If anything happens, he is usually the first to know. Read more on his website at www.klosterstrading.com. Read more articles by this author
