In January I published several buyers’ best guesses as to the most promising video games for the year. In the last column of the chart below are updates of what has happened since. In addition to three delays in release dates, you’ll notice that “The Club” by Sega, which buyers predicted to be the 13th-best-selling game of 2008, did not come in among the top 10 in February. Capcom’s “Devil May Cry” was ranked to become the 19th-best-selling game of the year, but highly surpassed those expectations in February, coming in at No. 2 in the United States and No. 1 in the UK.
Rank
Name of Game
Consoles
Publisher
Release Date
Comments
1
Grand Theft Auto IV
360, PS3
Take-Two
04/11/2008
2
Halo Wars
360
Microsoft
07/01/2008
3
Spore
PC
Electronic Arts
05/01/2008
4
Saints Row
360, PS3
THQ
12/31/2008
5
Metal Gear Solid
PS3
Konami
06/17/2008
6
Gran Turismo 5 Prologue
PS3
Sony
03/10/2008
Delayed to 12/4/08
7
Smash Bros Brawl
Wii
Nintendo
02/10/2008
Released: 3/9/08
8
Fall Out 3
PS3
Bethesda/Activision
09/09/2008
9
Star Wars: The Force Unleashed
360
Lucas Arts
04/08/2008
10
World of WarCraft: Wrath of the Lich King
PC
Blizzard/ Activision
09/09/2008
11
Final Fantasy XIII
PS3
Square Enix
12/01/2008
12
Splinter Cell Conviction
360
Ubisoft
06/03/2008
13
The Club
360, PC
Sega
02/19/2008
Not among top 10 in February
14
Alan Wake
360
Remedy
12/31/2008
15
Ghostbusters
PS3, Wii, 360, PC PS2, DS
Sierra/Activision
10/07/2008
16
Battlefield: Bad Company
360, PS3
Electronic Arts
03/24/2008
Delayed to 6/3/08
17
Army of Two
360, PS3
Electronic Arts
03/04/2008
18
Kill Zone
PS3
Sony
04/07/2008
19
Devil May Cry
360, PS3
Capcom
02/05/2008
No. 1 in UK and No. 2 in US in February*
20
StarCraft II
PC
Blizzard/ Activision
10/01/2008
* as per retailer panel
It is too early to draw any conclusions for March releases “Super Smash Bros Brawl” by Nintendo and “Army of Two” by Electronic Arts except to say that both are performing very well. “Super Smash” is actually on par with the first days of “Guitar Hero III” by Activision. Additionally, first numbers for “God of War: Chains of Olympus” (which came up from nowhere) by Sony for PSP suggest that the game is performing way above expectations. GameStop shop-floor kids think it is probably going to be the best handheld game of the year.
In terms of company performance, preliminary numbers provided by the buyers suggest that Sony’s PS3 is starting to do well and that Nintendo’s Wii is tailing off, as I predicted. Additionally, Microsoft’s Xbox 360 saw more sales in the beginning of 2007. According to the NPD Group, unit sales for the first two months in 2008 compared to 2007 are as follows:
These comparisons are also demonstrated in the web traffic for Sony, Nintendo and Electronic Arts:
However, blog intensity metrics suggest that the interest level in all three systems peaked just before Christmas, then took a nosedive and is now on the uptrend again. The PS3 has held steady with a marked upturn in March.
Writer's Bio: Lutz Muller is a Swiss who has lived on five continents. In the United States, he was the CEO for four manufacturing companies, including two in the toy industry. Since 2002, he has provided competitive intelligence on the toy and video game market to manufacturers and financial institutions coast-to-coast. He gets his information from his retailer panel, from big-box buyers and his many friends in the industry. If anything happens, he is usually the first to know. Read more on his website at www.klosterstrading.com. Read more articles by this author